India Launches AI-Enabled Weather Forecasting Systems to Deliver Hyper-Local Monsoon and Rainfall Alerts

India has taken a major step towards AI-driven weather forecasting with the launch of two advanced forecast products designed to provide hyper-local, impact-based and decision-support weather information. Union Minister Dr. Jitendra Singh launched the new systems developed under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, with the aim of strengthening weather services for farmers, administrators, disaster management agencies and the wider public.

The newly introduced products include an AI-enabled “Forecast of Monsoon Advance over Different Parts of the Country” and a “High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh” as a pilot service. These systems have been jointly developed by the India Meteorological Department, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

According to Dr. Jitendra Singh, the launch reflects the transformation of India’s weather forecasting infrastructure over the past decade. He said IMD has now become an essential part of governance, disaster preparedness, agriculture planning and everyday public decision-making. The new systems, he noted, move India from conventional forecasting towards more precise, location-specific and actionable weather information.

The AI-enabled monsoon advance forecasting system will provide probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday, up to four weeks in advance. The service is expected to benefit farmers across 16 states and more than 3,000 sub-districts through the dissemination network of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. By combining AI-based forecasting models, extended range prediction systems and statistical techniques, the system is designed to support better agricultural planning, sowing decisions, irrigation scheduling and crop protection measures.

The second product, the high-resolution rainfall forecast for Uttar Pradesh, will generate rainfall forecasts at 1-km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance. The pilot system uses AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates data from automatic rain gauges, automatic weather stations, Doppler Weather Radars and satellite-based rainfall datasets. This level of detail can be useful not only for agriculture, but also for water resource management, renewable energy planning, urban development, infrastructure projects and disaster response.

Dr. Singh said India’s forecasting capability has improved significantly in recent years. The country has recorded nearly 40 percent improvement in severe weather forecast accuracy during the recent decade compared to the previous decade. He also said cyclone track, intensity and landfall forecasts for 72 hours have improved by nearly 30 to 35 percent in the last five years.

The Minister also highlighted the expansion of India’s weather infrastructure. He said the country had only around 16 to 17 Doppler Weather Radars nearly a decade ago, while the number has now risen to around 50. Another 50 radars are planned under Mission Mausam. Along with radar expansion, India is strengthening automatic weather stations, observational networks, high-performance computing systems and digital platforms for wider dissemination of weather warnings.

Weather advisories and early warnings are now being shared through multiple channels including mobile applications, SMS alerts, WhatsApp, Kisan portals, television and other digital platforms. The government believes this wider last-mile outreach will help citizens and local administrations respond more effectively to extreme weather events.

Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr. M. Ravichandran said the newly launched products were developed in response to growing demand from agriculture and other sectors for highly localised and high-resolution weather forecasts. He said the Uttar Pradesh pilot demonstrates India’s ability to produce operational rainfall forecasts at 1-km resolution using dense observational networks and AI techniques, and similar services will gradually be expanded to other parts of the country as infrastructure improves.

The launch marks another step in India’s effort to build a climate-resilient and citizen-centric weather service system, where scientific modelling, artificial intelligence and stronger field-level data can directly support farmers, planners, administrators and the general public.

Source: PIB