FAS Estimates India’s Nuclear Stockpile at Up to 190 Warheads as Strategic Forces Modernise

India may now possess as many as 190 nuclear warheads, according to the latest assessment by the Federation of American Scientists, as the country continues to modernise the land, air and sea-based systems that underpin its nuclear deterrent.

The estimate appears in the latest edition of the Nuclear Notebook, Indian Nuclear Weapons, 2026, published on September 9 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The assessment was prepared by researchers Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project.

The number should not be confused with an official Indian figure. The Government of India does not disclose the size or detailed composition of its nuclear stockpile. FAS derives its estimates from government information available in the public domain, military and industry material, other open sources and commercial satellite imagery.

More Than 160 Warheads Could Be Supported by Operational Forces

FAS estimates that India’s existing operational delivery force could carry more than 160 nuclear warheads.

It believes additional warheads may already have been produced for missile systems currently entering production, taking the country’s possible total inventory to around 190.

The assessment identifies nine nuclear-capable systems currently in India’s force structure, comprising two aircraft-based systems, six land-based ballistic missile systems and one sea-based ballistic missile system.

At least two additional systems are approaching completion, according to FAS, indicating that the arsenal and the delivery infrastructure supporting it may continue to expand.

The report describes this as part of the continuing maturation of India’s nuclear triad rather than simply an increase in the number of weapons.

India Estimated Ahead of Pakistan, Below Britain

FAS’s current global nuclear inventory places India at an estimated 190 warheads and Pakistan at around 170.

The United Kingdom is estimated to possess a total inventory of about 225 warheads.

India therefore ranks below the UK under the current FAS estimates, and claims that it is certain to overtake Britain should be treated cautiously. FAS expects India’s stockpile to grow as additional weapon systems enter service, but it does not provide a timetable for India surpassing the British inventory.

FAS estimates much larger inventories for the major nuclear powers. Its 2026 figures put Russia at around 5,420 total warheads, the United States at 5,042 and China at about 620.

The estimates are inherently uncertain because states disclose very different levels of information about their nuclear forces.

Plutonium Stock Provides Another Estimate

FAS also examines the amount of weapons-grade plutonium potentially available to India.

Citing estimates by the International Panel on Fissile Materials, the Nuclear Notebook assesses India’s accumulated weapons-grade plutonium at approximately 730 kilograms, with an uncertainty of about 170 kilograms.

Assuming roughly four kilograms of plutonium for an individual weapon, the material could theoretically support somewhere between 140 and 225 warheads.

That calculation does not mean all of the material has been converted into nuclear weapons.

FAS specifically cautions that India is unlikely to have used its entire weapons-grade plutonium inventory and may retain part of it as a reserve. The amount required for individual weapons can also vary depending on their design.

This is one reason why estimates based solely on fissile-material production can differ significantly from estimates based on delivery systems and observed military infrastructure.

Nuclear Triad Continues to Mature

The more important development behind the numbers is India’s continuing effort to strengthen a survivable land-air-sea nuclear triad.

India’s strategic missile force has progressively moved towards longer-range, more survivable systems, while the sea-based component provides a second-strike capability intended to remain available even if land-based forces are attacked.

The development of ballistic-missile submarines has been particularly important for this purpose.

FAS says India’s modernisation programme increasingly reflects the requirement to maintain deterrence against both Pakistan and China, with longer-range systems giving India greater flexibility in how it structures its strategic forces.

MIRV Technology Adds Another Dimension

India has also demonstrated Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle technology on the Agni-5 missile.

DRDO conducted Mission Divyastra in March 2024, testing an indigenously developed Agni-5 missile equipped with MIRV technology.

MIRVs allow a single missile to deploy multiple re-entry vehicles, representing a major improvement in the sophistication of a strategic missile force.

The 2026 Nuclear Notebook identifies the development of MIRV-equipped Agni systems as one of the technological advances contributing to the maturation of India’s deterrent.

India Maintains Credible Minimum Deterrence

Despite continuing technological development, India’s publicly stated nuclear doctrine remains based on credible minimum deterrence and No First Use.

The Ministry of External Affairs has stated that India, as a responsible nuclear-weapon state, remains committed to maintaining credible minimum deterrence with a posture of No First Use and non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states.

The Government told Parliament that there had been no change in India’s nuclear doctrine, reiterating its commitment to credible minimum deterrence and No First Use.

That doctrine means India’s nuclear force is intended principally to provide the ability to retaliate after a nuclear attack rather than support a nuclear first-strike strategy.

A survivable sea-based force becomes particularly valuable under such a posture because it makes it harder for an adversary to eliminate India’s ability to retaliate.

Numbers Remain Estimates

The FAS assessment is valuable because India provides very little public information about its nuclear arsenal, but its numbers remain analytical estimates rather than confirmed inventories.

FAS itself emphasises this limitation.

Its researchers combine information about missile production, nuclear-capable aircraft, submarine development, fissile-material production, government statements and satellite imagery to construct their assessments.

The resulting figure of up to 190 warheads therefore represents FAS’s assessment of the most plausible current inventory, not an acknowledgement by the Indian government.

What can be established more clearly is the direction in which India’s strategic forces are moving.

India is continuing to strengthen the survivability of its nuclear deterrent, introduce more sophisticated missile technologies and develop its sea-based component while officially retaining the doctrine of credible minimum deterrence and No First Use.

The new FAS estimate suggests that the physical stockpile supporting that deterrent is also gradually expanding as newer delivery systems move towards operational deployment.

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References

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists / Federation of American Scientists — September 9, 2026
Indian Nuclear Weapons, 2026, by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle. The report estimates that India may have assembled up to 190 nuclear warheads and assesses the continuing modernisation of its nuclear forces.

Federation of American Scientists — Status of World Nuclear Forces 2026
Current comparative estimates of the nuclear inventories of India, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and other nuclear-armed states.

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India
Official statement of India’s commitment to credible minimum deterrence, No First Use and non-use against non-nuclear-weapon states.

Parliament of India / Ministry of External Affairs
Official parliamentary response confirming that there has been no change in India’s nuclear doctrine.

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