India’s Corn Exports May Rise to 2.4 Million Tonnes in 25-26 as Weak Prices Boost Overseas Demand

India’s corn exports are expected to rise sharply in the 2025-26 marketing year, supported by softer domestic prices and strong demand from neighbouring markets. The USDA Post has revised India’s corn export estimate for 25-26 to 2.4 million tonnes, significantly higher than its earlier projection of 1 million tonnes.

The marketing year runs from November to October. In the first five months of MY25-26, from November 2025 to March 2026, India exported around 9.96 lakh tonnes of corn. This was more than three times the volume shipped during the same period last year. Monthly shipments have averaged around 2 lakh tonnes, showing a clear revival in export momentum.

The rise in exports has been driven mainly by competitive Indian corn prices. Relatively weak domestic prices have made Indian corn attractive for buyers in nearby markets such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. Lower freight costs, shorter shipping distances and the ability to move smaller cargoes have added to India’s advantage in these destinations.

Trade sources expect exports to remain steady through the rest of the marketing year as Indian corn continues to remain price competitive compared with supplies from other origins. Based on current price parity and recent shipment trends, exports are now estimated to reach 2.4 million tonnes by the end of MY25-26. At the same time, import estimates have been lowered to 50,000 tonnes.

However, the outlook for MY26-27 appears more cautious. USDA Post expects India’s corn exports to decline to around 1 million tonnes in the next marketing year due to tighter domestic supplies and continued growth in internal demand. Imports for MY26-27 are projected at around 1 lakh tonnes.

India’s maize sowing for the current kharif season has started slightly ahead of last year. As of June 19, maize had been sown across 5.69 lakh hectares, compared with 5.34 lakh hectares during the same period last year. This increase has come despite a delayed onset and slow early progress of the monsoon across key producing regions in Central India.

In the previous kharif season, maize acreage had touched a record 98.61 lakh hectares. The strong planting, combined with above-normal monsoon rains and favourable yields, helped lift maize output sharply. Based on the third advance estimates, India’s maize production for 2025-26 has been revised to a record 55 million tonnes, around 27% higher than the previous year.

The record production has also contributed to pressure on domestic prices. Maize prices have remained below the minimum support price for several months. In May 2026, average spot prices in major producing and consuming states ranged between ₹17,950 and ₹21,000 per tonne, supported slightly by export demand. Even so, average May prices were around 14% lower than last year and nearly 19% below the government MSP.

For 2026-27, the Government has increased the minimum support price for maize by ₹10 per quintal, taking it to ₹2,410 per quintal. The small MSP increase comes at a time when the market is balancing record output, export demand and rising domestic consumption.

USDA Post has projected India’s corn production for MY26-27 at 47 million tonnes, lower than the record output estimated for 2025-26. The projected fall in production, along with steady demand from feed, starch, ethanol and other consuming sectors, could reduce export availability in the next marketing year.

Overall, India’s corn trade is passing through a strong export phase in MY25-26. Weak prices, record production and demand from nearby Asian markets have created favourable conditions for outbound shipments. The next season, however, may see a tighter balance as domestic demand strengthens and production moderates from the previous year’s record level.