India’s Economy Likely Grew 8.1% in Q3: State Bank of India Report

India’s economy appears to have kept its foot firmly on the growth accelerator in the third quarter of the current financial year, with estimates showing an expansion of around 8.1 per cent, according to a fresh research report released by the State Bank of India (SBI). This estimated surge in economic activity for the October-December period is a striking sign of resilience, especially as global headwinds continue to test major economies around the world, and comes on the back of already strong growth in the first half of the year.

The SBI analysis highlights that high-frequency economic indicators — such as consumption patterns, industrial output signals and other real-time activity data — continued to show momentum through the end of 2025, suggesting that both rural and urban segments are contributing to sustained demand. Rural consumption, bolstered by positive farm and non-farm activity, remained robust, while urban consumption showed steady improvement, supported in part by fiscal stimulus measures and festive-season spending trends.

These figures, if confirmed when official government GDP data is released later this week, would mark a continuation of an encouraging expansion phase for India. The country has already recorded strong growth earlier in the year, with successive quarterly performances reflecting the underlying strength of domestic demand — a key pillar that has helped the economy absorb external challenges such as uneven global trade and geopolitical uncertainties.

At the same time, economists and analysts caution that the context for evaluating India’s economic trajectory is shifting. A major statistical update is scheduled shortly, when the government updates the base year for GDP calculation from 2011-12 to 2022-23. This revised methodology, which incorporates newer sources like GST (Goods and Services Tax) data and modern digital commerce activity, is expected to better capture the structure of India’s contemporary economy. While this could influence reported growth rates once new estimates are published, much of the current momentum appears rooted in genuine expansion across consumption and production activities.

Alongside the SBI estimate, some rating agencies have suggested that growth may moderate somewhat from the very high levels seen in the previous quarter, while still remaining firmly above 7 per cent. Regardless of the exact final figure, the broad consensus among forecasters is that India’s economy is navigating global headwinds successfully and maintaining a pace that outstrips many other major economies. With the government and markets awaiting the official print on Q3 GDP, the optimistic outlook underscores confidence in India’s growth story as it continues to unfold.

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Reference: AIR

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