Real GDP has been Estimated to Grow by 6.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25.

 The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June Quarter (Q1) of the Financial Year (FY) 2024-25 along with its expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Quarterly Estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year on year percent changes and expenditure components of GDP for Q1 of the years 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 at Constant and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4 of Annexure A.

Key Highlights:

• Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.2% in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
• Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA has grown by 6.8% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.3% in Q1 of the previous financial year. This GVA growth in the Q1 of FY 2024-25 has been driven by significant growth in the Secondary Sector (8.4%), comprising of Construction (10.5%), Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services (10.4%) and Manufacturing (7.0%) sectors.
• Growth rate in Nominal GVA for Q1 of FY 2024-25 have been estimated at 9.8% over 8.2% growth rate in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), at Constant Prices, have witnessed growth rates of 7.4% and 7.5% respectively in Q1 of FY 2024-25.
• Net Taxes, at Current Prices, has observed the growth rate of 8.0 % in Q1 of FY 2024-25 resulting in 0.1% point gap between the growth rates of GVA and GDP.

I. Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates

            Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹43.64 lakh crore, against ₹40.91 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 6.7%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹77.31 lakh crore, against ₹70.50 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7%.

            Real GVA in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹40.73 lakh crore, against ₹38.12 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 6.8%. Nominal GVA in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹70.25 lakh crore, against ₹63.96 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.8%.

Fig. 1: Quarterly GDP and GVA Estimates along with Y-o-Y Growth Rates from Q1 FY 2021-22 to Q1 FY 2024-25 at Constant Prices

Fig. 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA

Sectoral Composition of Nominal GVA in Q1 of FY 2024-25

Fig. 3: Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA in Broad Sectors

[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying

Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and Construction

Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]

II. Methodology and Major Data Sources:

            Quarterly Estimates of GDP are indicator based and compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the same quarter of the previous financial year (2023-24) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. Data sourced from various Ministries/Departments/Private Agencies serve as valuable inputs in the compilation of these estimates.

            The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators/data sources viz. (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for Q1 of 2024-25, (iii) Crop Production Targets for 2024-25, (iv) Production Targets of Major Livestock Products for 2024-25; (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits and Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central and State Governments, etc., available for the Q1 of 2024-25. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure B.

            Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. Latest available information on the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to obtain the total volume of taxes. The total product subsidies at Current prices were compiled using the information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy for Centre and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States for April-June quarter of FY 2024-25. Latest available data on the CGA and CAG websites for Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States are used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter July-September of 2024-25 (Q2 2024-25) will be on 29.11.2024.

Annexure A

Annexure B

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