India’s Economy to Return to Normal Faster than Expected – Barclays

Barclays updated its Indian economy’s fiscal 2022 growth projections to 8.5% from an earlier 7% estimate, saying the country will “return to normal” faster than anticipated as the COVID-19 curve begins to soften in the world’s second-most populous country.

India is approaching 9 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus, the second highest in the world after the United States, but after a peak in mid-September, the number of new daily cases has decreased.

The possibility of a successful vaccine in the near future and the strong population-wide overall prevalence of antibodies help the case for a more lasting economic recovery,” said Barclays in a note.”

Since stringent lockdowns has been relaxed, markets have opened up and economic activity has picked up in India, with companies such as motorcycle manufacturer Hero MotoCorp HROM.NS and jewellery manufacturer Titan Company TITN.NS reporting good sales during the festive season.

Last week in the July-September quarter, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast GDP to contract by 8.6%.

On Thursday, Barclays said it expects GDP growth to start in the third quarter of the current financial year a quarter ahead of the RBI’s forecast.

Last month, after witnessing its contraction this fiscal year, a Reuters poll showed the Indian economy would recover by 9.0% in fiscal 2022.

Source: IBEF