India has Tackled Covid Much Better Considering its Population: SBI Report

India has done a good job in tackling coronavirus pandemic considering its population, suggested a SBI Research report published on Monday.

Using a bottom up approach, SBI research tested a two stage least square (2SLS) panel model with 20-major states considering the monthly data from April to October 2020.

“In this 2SLS regression, we first regressed the state-wise test data on population to gauge the number of tests that should have been ideally done given the population difference across Indian states. In Stage 2, the number of confirmed cases was then regressed on estimated test numbers calculated in equation 1 to arrive at model estimate of number of cases if the tests were done in accordance with the population size,” the

The SBI report indicated that for India the estimated number of cases is 84.49 lakh which is 2.65 lakh higher than the actual confirmed cases of 81.8 lakh, thus indicating India has done a good job on controlling the spread of the virus.

“States including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Delhi and Tamil Nadu have done badly in managing the pandemic, with estimated cases lower than the actual cases,” said the report authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI Research’s chief economic adviser.

The report further adds that Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand among others have managed the situation quite well with estimated cases more than their actual cases.

India reached its COVID peak on 16 September. The daily new cases have declined since then and are now moving around 50,000, while the daily recoveries are higher than new cases.

Source: LiveMint