2020-2030 The Rising Tide

While much has been written about the ongoing naval buildup in South East Asia as a response to China, almost nobody has focused on a similar buildup going on in South Asia as the subcontinent’s economies mature enough to build and maintain larger naval forces. This buildup is also interesting as the buildup of the Indian Navy is primarily a byproduct of a rapidly expanding economy coupled with the need to maintain its primacy in the Indian Ocean Region, whereas the Pakistani buildup is designed to contain & frustrate the Indian Navy. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh are both stepping into uncharted waters by planning to operate larger vessels which they haven’t done as yet & grow from semi-green water navies to true green water navies.

The Indian navy has a long term plan to grow from a 137 ship navy presently to a 200 ship navy by 2027. This plan is currently under implementation with at least 59 vessels under construction in various yards for delivery in the 2020-30 time period. Another 55 vessels are at the tendering stage and orders for the same should be awarded in some time. The aforesaid 59 vessels already ordered include 1 indigenous aircraft carrier, 3 Scorpene conventional submarines (3 delivered pre-2020), 4 nuclear missile carrying submarines (2 delivered pre 2020), 4 P15B class destroyers, at least 4 Talwar class frigates, 7 P17A Class frigates, 2 Missile range instrumentation vessels and 5 new offshore patrol vessels. The Indian Navy will be adding airpower as well and programs for the induction of 57 new fighter aircraft, 15 new MPA and some 260 odd helicopters are already in progress with orders for 24 MH60R Helicopters & another 4 P8I MPA having already been placed. Discussion on a deal for the acquisition of 22 Sea Guardian Maritime surveillance drones from the US is also well underway. These ships &aircraft once delivered will provide a substantial augmentation to the firepower of the Indian Navy.

The Pakistan Navy has also begun its own program of naval growth. Most recently the Pakistan Navy signed a deal in late 2015 to purchase 8 Chinese S20 AIP equipped submarines with all being delivered by 2026. Apart from this Pakistan is also buying 4 054A Frigates from China and another 4 fast attack craft still remain in discussion .Pakistan is also purchasing some 4 ADA MILGEM class corvettes from Turkey while acquiring 2 OPVs from DAMEN in Denmark and 2 OPVs from Swift ships in the USA. These acquisitions will ensure the Pakistan navy maintains a very credible force level of eleven modern submarines and eight frigates all the way to 2030 & give it its first ever force of corvettes and OPVs. Pakistan is also planning on augmenting its maritime aircraft force levels with the induction of modern MPAs and JF-17 fighter aircraft as well.

The Bangladesh and SriLankan Navies are also working on their own expansion plans. The Bangladeshi navy has a well chalked out growth plan called forces 2030 under which they will be acquiring 2 more type56 corvettes from China while also looking to Chinese yards for support with building 6 frigates. The Bangladesh navy submarines corps is still in its infancy having just acquired its first 2 MING class SSKs from China nevertheless plans for expanding this into a six submarine fleet with the addition of 4 more KILO or CHANG-BOGO class SSKs is in discussion. The Sri Lankan Navy has a much more modest expansion plan lined up with the induction of one Ex USNAVY Hamilton class cutter and an ex PLAN Type 53 Frigate being the only vessels lined up for now, though there have been earlier reports of the Sri Lankan Navy looking at a possible acquisition of one or two Gepard 5.1 class frigates from Russia.

An often ignored factor at least in the Bay of Bengal is the Myanmar Navy. The Myanmarese have embarked on their own Naval expansion program & have in fact acquired a complete Shipbuilding facility from China in the late 1990’s. Myanmar has since gone ahead and built three indigenous missile armed frigates and have detailed plans to build another five ships of the Kyan Sittha Class.

Myanmar has also become the first navy in the region (Beating India as well here) in acquiring a brand new LPD capability with the acquisition of a single Makassar class LPD from South Korea christened the UMS Mottama , now the largest vessel in the Myanmar Navy.
A Robust Submarine capability is also being acquired with the acquisition of a KILO class submarine from India to be followed up by two new KILO Class boats acquired from Russia.

Suffice to say that the Indian subcontinental region will soon witness a large and unprecedented naval buildup of Regional Navies complementing the rise of economies in the region. While this would create more challenges for opposing navies as in the Arabian Sea, in the Bay of Bengal and Northern Indian Ocean this growth would be more benign and complementary as most of the navies here are loosely allied to one another. This should overall help in increasing the security of merchant vessels passing through regional waters and help to control piracy in the waters around the horn of Africa.

Author: Soumik (Twitter :Twitter.com/aryanwarlord)